Resources / Estimator tools / Bid/no-bid scorecard
Go/no-go decision tool

Bid/no-bid scorecard

Score the seven questions that decide whether a pursuit deserves your estimating hours. The verdict engine weighs pay history, schedule fit, and AR exposure, applies hard-kill rules, calibrates thresholds to your backlog, and tells you exactly what would flip the decision.

This tool implements the weighted rubric from our guide, The 7-Question Bid/No-Bid Scorecard That Protects Your Win Rate. Complete it before the takeoff starts — a no-bid decision made before the quantity survey costs nothing. Every input recalculates the verdict live. Prefer spreadsheets? Grab the free 8-sheet Excel template with the same engine plus a cash-exposure model and pursuit log.

The seven questions score each 0–3

Shop calibration tunes the verdict

6+ months tightens thresholds; under 2 loosens them.
Wins ÷ bids over the last 12 months.
Fully loaded hours: takeoff, quotes, proposal.
Typical GP on a win of this size.
Cash + line of credit you can actually deploy.
Max billed-but-unpaid at net-45 + 10% retention (usually month 3–4).
Download CSV Excel template

Verdict live

Decision
—
0
of 63 pts
No-bidStrategicLoaded markupBid

Red flags

    What would flip this decision

      Working in your favor

        Pursuit economics

        Break-even hit rate
        —
        Your hit rate
        —
        Est. win probability here
        —
        Expected value of bidding
        —
        Show methodology & scoring logic

        Weighted scoring

        • Each question scores 0–3, multiplied by its fixed weight. Pay history, schedule fit, and AR exposure carry 3x; personnel, scope clarity, and retention carry 2x; competitive field carries 1x. Maximum weighted score = 63.
        • Default decision bands: 45+ Bid, 32–44 Bid with loaded markup, 20–31 Strategic only, <20 No-bid.

        Threshold calibration

        • Backlog ≥ 6 months tightens bands to 50 / 38 / 25 — a full shop should be pickier.
        • Backlog ≤ 2 months loosens bands to 40 / 28 / 17 — an empty pipeline justifies more risk for a quarter.

        Hard-kill rules (override the score)

        • Peak AR above 40% of available working capital forces NO-BID regardless of score. One slow-pay project at that exposure can sink the company.
        • Pay-history score of 0 (76+ days or open dispute) caps the verdict at "Strategic only" — you cannot outrun an owner who does not pay.
        • AR between 20–40% of working capital caps the verdict at "Bid with loaded markup" and flags financing cost.

        Pursuit economics

        • Break-even hit rate = estimating cost per bid ÷ avg gross profit per won job
        • Estimated win probability scales your historical hit rate by scorecard strength: win% = hit rate × (score% ÷ 55%), clamped 2–60%. A strong scorecard means you fit the job; fit correlates with winning at a price that holds.
        • Expected value = win% × gross profit − estimating cost. A negative EV means the pursuit destroys money on average even before opportunity cost.

        Sources

        • FMI Contractor Business Performance Report bid-hit-ratio benchmarks (20–30% specialty subs, 10–15% hard-bid GCs).
        • Decision bands and weights per the PILARS bid/no-bid scoring model field guide.

        Bid/no-bid FAQs

        What is a bid/no-bid scorecard?
        A weighted rubric a contractor completes before starting a takeoff. Each pursuit is scored on owner pay history, schedule fit against backlog, AR exposure, key personnel availability, design maturity, retention terms, and the competitive field. The weighted total maps to a decision band: bid, bid with a loaded markup, bid only if strategic, or no-bid.
        What is a good bid-hit ratio in construction?
        FMI benchmark data puts profitable specialty subcontractors at a 20–30% bid-hit ratio and hard-bid general contractors at 10–15%. Above roughly 40% usually signals underpricing; under 8% means estimating hours are being burned on the wrong pursuits. See our hit-ratio benchmarks by trade.
        How do you calculate the break-even bid-hit ratio?
        Break-even hit rate = fully loaded estimating cost per bid ÷ expected gross profit per won job. If a bid costs $4,800 in estimating hours and an average win produces $95,000 of gross profit, break-even is about 5%. Bidding below that ratio loses money before a single job is won.
        When should a contractor no-bid a project?
        Hard triggers: peak AR exposure above 40% of working capital, an owner with 76+ day pay history or open disputes, or a project peak that stacks on your existing backlog peak. Below the no-bid threshold, decline within 48 hours with a short no-bid letter so you stay on the bid list.
        Which bid/no-bid factors matter most?
        Pay history, schedule fit, and AR exposure get 3x weight because they decide whether a won job produces cash. Personnel, scope clarity, and retention get 2x. Bidder count gets 1x — it affects win probability, not whether the job is worth winning.
        Should the scorecard be completed before or after the takeoff?
        Before, always. Once hours are sunk into the quantity survey, sunk-cost bias pushes every score up by about a point. A no-bid before the takeoff costs nothing; the same decision after wastes the whole estimating spend.

        Keep going

        The full scoring model

        The field guide behind this tool: FMI hit-ratio data, question-by-question scoring rules, and a worked example.

        Read

        No-bid letter templates

        Decline the job without losing the relationship — three copy-paste letters and the 48-hour rule.

        Read

        Hit-ratio benchmarks by trade

        What a healthy win rate looks like for electrical, drywall, steel, mechanical, and GC hard-bid work.

        Read

        The 25-question checklist

        The 90-second screen that kills obviously wrong pursuits before they reach this scorecard.

        Read

        The 15-minute go/no-go meeting

        Agenda, attendees, and decision rights — the meeting format that consumes this scorecard.

        Read

        9 bid/no-bid mistakes

        Sunk-cost scoring, coverage bids, blended pipelines — the leaks this process exists to plug.

        Read
        See Pilars run a takeoff on your own plans. Book a call →